In the first quarter of 2024, home prices increased in 93% of U.S. metro areas, with significant growth observed in 30% of these markets. The national median price for single-family homes rose to $389,400, marking a 5% year-over-year increase. The South led in sales volume, while the Northeast saw the highest price appreciation. Despite high mortgage rates, market conditions improved slightly for buyers due to a marginal decline in required mortgage payments compared to the previous quarter.

After Kathy Hochul's failed New York Housing Compact plan last year, New York State is trying again to tackle its severe housing crisis. According to anonymous sources close to the deal, New York state leaders have reportedly reached a tentative agreement on a legislative plan to tackle the crisis and will be presented to the full Senate and Assembly on Monday. The framework of the deal offers incentives for both developers and tenants. Developers would receive significant tax breaks to develop more affordable units, while tenants would benefit from enhanced protections against eviction in certain cases. Additionally, the agreement would allow landlords of rent-stabilized apartments to raise rents for renovation costs and eliminate size restrictions on new Manhattan apartment buildings, fulfilling long-standing desires of city officials.

The housing market for buyers in California is becoming increasingly challenging. Prices are soaring while the inventory remains limited. Statistics reveal a stark reality: home prices have surged 9.7% over the past year, with the median home price now at $813,980. Meanwhile, inventory levels have plummeted by 48.3%, exacerbating the affordability crisis. Despite historically low mortgage rates, competition remains fierce, leading to bidding wars and further price escalation. Experts suggest that while the market may stabilize in the long term, immediate relief for buyers appears unlikely.

Currently, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage stands at around 6.9%, a significant decrease from late October when it peaked at nearly 8%. Despite expectations of rates declining later in the year, some buyers are opting to act now due to fears of increased competition. The combination of high mortgage rates and soaring home prices has made affordability a major concern, with many households earning less than what's needed to afford a median-priced home. While economists anticipate mortgage rates easing, uncertainty remains.

There are ongoing bipartisan efforts at various levels of government to address housing supply and pricing challenges in the United States. The importance of local action in addressing these issues, particularly through measures such as accessory dwelling units (ADUs), changes in zoning rules, and reduction of lot sizes, is increasingly becoming evident. Despite political differences, lawmakers in some states are collaborating on bipartisan housing legislation. However, challenges such as NIMBYism hinder progress at the local level, prompting calls for state-level intervention to overcome resistance to housing reforms. 

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass took office in 2022 and since then, has been making a big push to address homelessness, particularly in Venice Beach. Mayor Bass initiated the Inside Safe program to provide motel rooms for homeless residents, resulting in cleaner sidewalks and parks in Venice Beach. However, challenges persist, including budgetary constraints and the need for permanent housing solutions. Critics accuse Bass of prioritizing aesthetics over long-term solutions, while supporters applaud her urgency in tackling the crisis. Despite progress, concerns remain about the sustainability and effectiveness of current efforts, highlighting the complex nature of addressing homelessness in Los Angeles.

The National Low Income Housing Coalition report shows Texas only has 29 available and affordable rental homes per 100 extremely low-income renters. The report ranks Houston, Dallas, and Austin in the top ten worst major metro cities for affordable housing.

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Source - iStockphotos

With climate change making severe weather events more common and the area’s housing crisis increasing the number of people who need support, the operation of the shelters is taking an increasing toll on county and city officials and budgets, as well as the community volunteers whose labor the region relies on to run the shelters.

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Image credits - Mika Baumeister/Unsplash

On January 10, 2023, Governor Kathy Hochul announced a statewide strategy to address New York’s housing crisis. This new plan, named The New York Housing Compact, aims to build 800,000 new homes over the next decade to meet the state’s historic housing shortage.‍

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Hochul’s Compact would have boosted housing production in New York City’s suburbs, by overriding local planning boards that limit most land to single-family detached homes. However, it didn't make it past the State Budget after heated negotiations at the State Legislature.

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What is next for New York's affordable housing future?

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Imade credits - Mike Groll/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

In recent years, Florida has become one of the least affordable places to live in the nation, making affordable housing one of the top issues impacting Floridians. While the state’s reputation as a place for leisurely coastal living has made it a popular retirement destination for seniors, Florida has also seen an influx of young, high-earning professionals from states like New York, where the median home price is nearly double that of Florida’s. While individuals from states like New York or California — two states with some of the highest average incomes in the country — may find Florida to be more affordable, everyday Floridians are paid lower wages on average and renters in Florida have historically been more cost-burdened than any other state in the nation. In the span of just two years, median rent prices increased by over 30 percent across the state, from about $1,340 in February 2020 to roughly $1,760 in February 2022. To afford a modest one-bedroom rental home at fair market rent, a person earning $10 per hour (the state’s minimum wage for most of 2022) would need to work 86 hours per week.

According to a new report by State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, housing costs in and around New York City have surged by 68% between 2012 and 2022, outpacing other major U.S. metropolitan areas, The average household's housing expenses in New York City and Nassau, Suffolk, Rockland and Westchester counties rose from $18,000 to $30,300 during this period. Across the nation, housing costs make up 34% of average household expenses, whereas for New Yorkers, this has reached a record high of 40%. Over half of New York households are now "rent-burdened," spending at least 30% of income on housing. According to Deputy Comptroller Rahul Jain, the deadly combination of too-little housing production and too-high rent is responsible for increased evictions and a high rate of homelessness. Although he believes that the government is making smart policy choices, he emphasizes on the need to speed up efforts. 

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In recent quarters, US bank loans backed by owner-occupied commercial real estate have outperformed those backed by nonowner-occupied properties. This shift began in 2020 when work-from-home policies impacted nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans. The delinquency ratio for nonowner-occupied properties surpassed that of owner-occupied ones in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023. The trend suggests that loans on owner-occupied properties carry less risk, reflecting property owners' likelihood to stay current on loans. However, the performance varies based on bank size, with larger banks experiencing worse delinquency ratios for nonowner-occupied loans. Notably, some major lenders like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup focus heavily on nonowner-occupied properties.

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Photo by Jorge Salvador on Unsplash

Chicago is facing criticism from federal investigators for hindering affordable housing by allowing City Council members to reject such developments in their wards, by using their aldermanic prerogative. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development suggests that the aldermanic prerogative gives City Council members too much power to veto affordable housing proposals.

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HUD's Lon Meltesen, regional director of HUD’s Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity wrote, "the department’s investigation indicates that the city affords each of its 50 wards a local veto over proposals to build affordable housing and that many majority-white wards use the local veto to block, deter or downsize such proposals.” He further said that veto “disproportionately harms Black and Hispanic households who are far more likely than white households to need and qualify for affordable housing." The investigation was triggered in November 2018, when a complaint was filed to HUD by the Chicago Area Fair Housing Alliance and nine other advocacy groups, against the City Council members' use of the veto power.

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Photo by Matthew Hamilton on Unsplash

The law of supply and demand doesn't seem to be working in the context of the U.S. housing market. As prices hit record highs, available homes remain at record lows. We had visualized the demand and supply gap in our Housing Count project, so you can check out the status of this gap in your own counties.

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The recent surge in housing development, particularly in states like Florida and Idaho, marks a notable departure from the housing crisis of 2007. This time around, the boom is characterized by a shift towards apartment buildings and condo complexes. Notably, South Dakota, Colorado, Florida, and Arizona are emerging as leaders in the production of multifamily housing units, with only D.C. surpassing them. Contrastingly, some of the traditional multifamily housing strongholds, including states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York, are lagging behind in housing production. This shift in dynamics suggests a changing landscape in the housing market, with a move away from high-rise-heavy megalopoli towards a more decentralized approach to housing development.

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• Red counties are permitting more housing development than blue counties
• Part of the reasoning for the above could be because these localities are able to build more cheaply and be more responsive to housing needs
• Another reason could be more restrictive zoning, NIMBYism and environmental regulation in blue counties, which can deter housing growth, as we saw in the failure of the NYC Housing Compact case

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Overall, the analysts didn't find any major correlations between a state’s politics and its housing production.

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(Image credits: Stock photos) 

The housing market is undergoing significant challenges, with 2023 expected to see the lowest home sales since 2010. Despite an anticipated increase in activity in 2024, transactions are projected to remain below average. Mortgage rates, after reaching a two-decade high in 2023, are expected to decrease in 2024 but will likely settle between 6% and 6.5%. This shift may attract both buyers and sellers, reshaping market dynamics.

The trajectory of home prices is uncertain and hinges on the timing of buyer and seller reentry. If sellers enter first, early 2024 could witness modest and short-lived price drops. However, markets with affordability challenges, particularly major coastal areas, face higher risks of corrections. Conversely, a resurgence of buyers before sellers could lead to a competitive market with rising prices.

First-time buyers may initially favor the rental market due to attractive deals, but the strong desire for homeownership, especially among millennials, suggests potential shifts as rates drop and inventory increases in 2024. Demographic factors, including delayed home purchases by boomers and the pent-up demand from millennials, are expected to keep inventory low, supporting firm and growing home prices in 2024.

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While there is optimism, potential wildcards, such as the threat of another coronavirus strain, geopolitical risks, economic recession, and political uncertainties, could impact consumer confidence and influence home buying and selling activity in unforeseen ways.

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In a bold initiative to tackle New York's housing crisis, the city is adopting a novel approach: incentivizing homeowners to convert their garages and attics into additional living spaces by offering to pay them. NYCHPD Commissioner Adolfo Carrion Jr. announced on Nov 21, the launch of a new pilot program called “Plus One ADU”. The pilot program will make available $395,000 in funding through HPD and $2.6 million in grant funding from New York State Homes and Community Renewal (HCR). Applications are now open for qualified homeowners to build “accessory dwelling units,” or ADUs, which have proven to be one of the most effective local solutions to tackle housing affordability and offer additional living space for multi-generational housing.  

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Currently, the program aims at offering 15 owners of single-family homes the funding needed to build detached units or retrofitting basements. Each owner will receive up to $400,000. The eligibility criteria is based on income, and a family of four will have a ceiling of $232,980, with lower-income households being prioritized. The rents in these ADUs will be capped at around $2,600 for a one-bedroom apartment.

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(Image credits: Adobe stock images)

According to a recent market study report by Arizent, where the company surveyed professionals across different financial segments such as banking, insurance, mortgage, technology etc, there is a range of different opinions about AI. Most respondents have concerns over job displacement and ethical considerations persist, especially regarding generative AI's accuracy and fairness. The general attitude among mortgage professionals is to be hyper cautious towards adopting generative AI, and they citied uncertainty and budget constraints as top considerations. Some of the main concerns of industry professionals regarding the adoption of AI includes loss of personalized customer interactions and job security. Despite apprehensions, there's acknowledgment of AI's potential to enhance efficiency and job performance, with expectations of AI handling a significant portion of tasks within the next five years. While efficiency gains are anticipated across various industries, banking professionals foresee AI primarily bolstering fraud protection.

In California, state and local governments have allocated substantial funds for affordable housing initiatives. Despite widespread acknowledgment of the need for affordable housing, publicly funded initiatives face challenges such as labor agreements and bureaucratic processes, which can inflate costs and slow down construction. Many private firms are moving away from a reliance on government funds, which according to them, drives up development cost owing to the red tape. Instead, these firms are exploring alternative financing models. 

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For example, SDS Capital Group is raising an impact fund from private investors, to build a 49-unit low-income housing project in South Los Angeles. While privately financed projects may still rely on government support for operation, recent regulatory changes have facilitated approvals and increased profitability for such developments. Concerns linger regarding the long-term maintenance and sustainability of privately funded housing projects, particularly regarding the welfare of residents and the availability of federal funding for rental assistance programs. Nevertheless, advocates see potential in private-equity models to drive down construction costs and inspire government reform in affordable housing initiatives.

During the recent legislative session, House Bill 2474, aimed at holding Washington cities accountable for building affordable housing and shelters, gained momentum before dying at the Senate. Championed by Rep. Strom Peterson, the bill was prompted by instances like Kenmore's rejection of a 100-unit affordable housing project, drawing criticism from Governor Inslee for obstructing solutions to homelessness. Evolving over the session, the bill proposed fiscal penalties for non-compliant cities, emphasizing mediation between cities and housing developers before enforcement. Despite setbacks, advocates like Michele Thomas stressed the urgency of addressing homelessness, a critical issue highlighted by over 28,000 homeless individuals counted in Washington during the 2023 Point-in-Time count. With hopes for its return next year, the bill reflects a statewide imperative to bridge the gap in housing needs, projected to exceed 500,000 units for low-income earners over the next two decades.

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There has been an emergence in partnerships between healthcare systems and affordable housing developers, such as the H3C project in New Orleans, aiming to integrate stable housing with better health outcomes. Supported by investments from entities like Aetna and Kaiser Permanente, these initiatives reflect a growing recognition among health organizations of the benefits of addressing housing insecurity. While healthcare systems are not acting as banks, they are bridging gaps in funding for affordable housing, leveraging resources to meet community needs and their own nonprofit requirements. Such collaborations extend beyond traditional housing projects to include specialized care facilities and initiatives targeting populations with the greatest needs. Additionally, healthcare systems are exploring innovative approaches, including utilizing their land assets and collecting data to inform future partnerships and interventions aimed at addressing health and housing disparities.

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Leaders in New York’s State Senate are set to propose sweeping legislation to counter the growing housing crisis in the state of New York. The proposed legislation by leaders in New York’s State Senate aims to address the housing crisis through several key points:

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• Creation of a new public benefit corporation to finance housing construction on state-owned land, inspired by the Mitchell-Lama program.
• Introduction of a new developer tax break with stronger affordability protections than the previous 421a program.
• Inclusion of "good cause eviction" legislation to restrict landlords' ability to evict tenants and justify rent hikes.
• Push for more construction of larger residential buildings in Manhattan and legalization of basement units.
• Requirement for condos and rentals built through the program to be affordable to middle-income households.

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The proposal will be released as part of the One House budget bill, to incentivize significant new development while supporting landlords and tenants. However, its success hinges on gaining support from both houses of the Legislature and the governor, with details such as financial viability and inclusiveness of tenant protections remaining crucial factors.

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The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) announced the allocation of over $14.5 million to public housing agencies (PHAs) nationwide to address veteran homelessness. An estimated distribution of more than 1,400 HUD-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) vouchers will be carried out nationwide. Some of the highest concentration of vouchers will go to Tucson, Arizona; Philadelphia; and Spokane, Washington. These vouchers combine rental assistance from HUD with support services, like case management and clinical services provided by VA. The vouchers have contributed to a 4% decrease in veteran homelessness since 2020 and has housed over 46,000 homeless veterans in 2023 alone.

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