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The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts will influence the housing market, but the effects won't be immediate. Although lower rates make borrowing more affordable, the ongoing housing shortage and existing conditions in the market remain tough obstacles.

Key Takeaways:

• Lower Mortgage Rates: Fed rate cuts have already reduced the average 30-year mortgage rate, which dropped from a peak of 7.79% in late 2023 to around 6.2%. This could ease the burden for homebuyers and those refinancing.
• Home Sales: As rates decline, more homeowners might be encouraged to sell, which could help alleviate some of the housing market’s stagnation. However, a full recovery of the resale market is expected to be gradual.
• Ongoing Supply Issues: Despite lower rates, housing supply shortages will persist, especially in high-demand areas. Supply constraints, driven by zoning restrictions and labor/material shortages, remain a barrier to affordability.

While the Fed’s actions are a positive step toward stabilizing the housing market, broader structural challenges—particularly the lack of new housing supply—will continue to affect the market​

Bank of America economists predict the US housing market won't recover until at least 2026, with home affordability improving only with a recession. They attribute the prolonged downturn to a surge in demand during the pandemic, followed by high inflation and mortgage rates. Home prices are expected to rise by 4.5% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, then stabilize in 2026. The "lock-in effect" of current homeowners unwilling to sell due to high mortgage rates will persist. However, improving credit conditions and less restrictive monetary policies may attract some buyers back to the market.

In 2023, the number of homeless individuals in the U.S. reached approximately 653,000, the highest since such records began in 2007. This figure represents a significant 12% increase compared to 2020, as reported by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in their Annual Homelessness Assessment Report to Congress. Data for this report is gathered from point-in-time counts conducted every January by volunteers, local outreach teams, shelters, and service providers. Here are the top 10 states with the largest homesless population:

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1. California (181,399)
2. New York (103,200)
3. Florida (30,756)
4. Washington (28,036)
5. Texas (27,377)
6. Oregon (20,142)
7. Massachusetts (19,141)
8. Colorado (14,439)
9. Arizona (14,237)
10. Pennsylvania (12,556)

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The worsening housing affordability crisis in the U.S. has broken several records, the recent being the national affordability gap nearing a 10-year high. Only 63% of counties are now affordable for median-income households, compared to 94% in 2019. The median home price exceeds what the average household can afford by nearly $70,000. The West, especially the San Francisco Bay Area, is facing significant gaps due to supply shortages and continues to top the list of one of the most unaffordable housing markets in the country. Even traditionally affordable areas like Henry County, Indiana, are seeing dramatic price increases, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for many. High interest rates, low construction, and rising prices are key factors.

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You can see a full breakdown of affordable housing shortage by county on our Housing Count page

Homelessness is rising in the US, with a growing number of employed people now unable to afford housing due to high rents. Plumbers, delivery workers, pizzeria employees, casino supervisors and other working class Americans are becoming the new face of homelessness.

Rising costs and a lack of affordable housing options are forcing people to sleep in cars, motels or even public spaces. The situation is particularly difficult for those who don't qualify for government assistance due to their income but cannot afford rent on their own. Experts say increasing rental assistance and building more affordable housing are some ways to address this issue.

In the first quarter of 2024, home prices increased in 93% of U.S. metro areas, with significant growth observed in 30% of these markets. The national median price for single-family homes rose to $389,400, marking a 5% year-over-year increase. The South led in sales volume, while the Northeast saw the highest price appreciation. Despite high mortgage rates, market conditions improved slightly for buyers due to a marginal decline in required mortgage payments compared to the previous quarter.

Climate disasters are wreaking havoc across the United States and are disproportionately impacting renters, who often lack the financial resources and insurance protection of homeowners.

Hurricane Ian survivors are facing a financial crisis long after the storm has passed. The once-affordable paradise of Matlacha, Florida, was shattered by the Category 5 hurricane, leaving residents grappling with staggering financial losses. As a renter, Venus James found herself particularly vulnerable, with no insurance coverage and soaring costs for everything from housing to basic necessities.

Rising rents, job losses, and the depletion of savings have pushed many survivors into a cycle of financial hardship. Experts call for increased government support, including eviction moratoriums and direct financial assistance, to help renters recover from disasters and prevent further economic devastation.

Greystone, a prominent commercial real estate finance firm, is expanding its affordable housing portfolio with the launch of its first national multi-investor Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) fund. Led by industry veterans Greg Voyentzie, Sarah Laubinger, and Todd Jones, the fund aims to raise $100 million and is expected to close by early next year.  

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The new venture leverages Greystone's existing strength in affordable housing lending to offer a comprehensive suite of financing solutions for developers. The company plans to develop proprietary tools to streamline deal evaluation and management, enhancing investor returns and driving positive community impact.  

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(Image Source: AHF)

The Treasury Department is allocating $100 million over three years to boost affordable housing development as part of the Biden administration's plan to combat rising living costs. Other efforts, announced this week by Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, include offering greater interest rate predictability to housing finance agencies, urging Federal Home Loan Banks to increase their housing program spending, and providing updated guidance for state and local governments on using recovery funds for housing. Yellen also called for expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and reducing legal barriers to housing development. 

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📢 Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen - “Eliminating needless legal barriers to housing development doesn’t just affect individuals and communities. Economists estimate that restrictive residential land use regulations." 

Currently, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage stands at around 6.9%, a significant decrease from late October when it peaked at nearly 8%. Despite expectations of rates declining later in the year, some buyers are opting to act now due to fears of increased competition. The combination of high mortgage rates and soaring home prices has made affordability a major concern, with many households earning less than what's needed to afford a median-priced home. While economists anticipate mortgage rates easing, uncertainty remains.

There are ongoing bipartisan efforts at various levels of government to address housing supply and pricing challenges in the United States. The importance of local action in addressing these issues, particularly through measures such as accessory dwelling units (ADUs), changes in zoning rules, and reduction of lot sizes, is increasingly becoming evident. Despite political differences, lawmakers in some states are collaborating on bipartisan housing legislation. However, challenges such as NIMBYism hinder progress at the local level, prompting calls for state-level intervention to overcome resistance to housing reforms. 

According to a recent market study report by Arizent, where the company surveyed professionals across different financial segments such as banking, insurance, mortgage, technology etc, there is a range of different opinions about AI. Most respondents have concerns over job displacement and ethical considerations persist, especially regarding generative AI's accuracy and fairness. The general attitude among mortgage professionals is to be hyper cautious towards adopting generative AI, and they citied uncertainty and budget constraints as top considerations. Some of the main concerns of industry professionals regarding the adoption of AI includes loss of personalized customer interactions and job security. Despite apprehensions, there's acknowledgment of AI's potential to enhance efficiency and job performance, with expectations of AI handling a significant portion of tasks within the next five years. While efficiency gains are anticipated across various industries, banking professionals foresee AI primarily bolstering fraud protection.

There has been an emergence in partnerships between healthcare systems and affordable housing developers, such as the H3C project in New Orleans, aiming to integrate stable housing with better health outcomes. Supported by investments from entities like Aetna and Kaiser Permanente, these initiatives reflect a growing recognition among health organizations of the benefits of addressing housing insecurity. While healthcare systems are not acting as banks, they are bridging gaps in funding for affordable housing, leveraging resources to meet community needs and their own nonprofit requirements. Such collaborations extend beyond traditional housing projects to include specialized care facilities and initiatives targeting populations with the greatest needs. Additionally, healthcare systems are exploring innovative approaches, including utilizing their land assets and collecting data to inform future partnerships and interventions aimed at addressing health and housing disparities.

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In California, state and local governments have allocated substantial funds for affordable housing initiatives. Despite widespread acknowledgment of the need for affordable housing, publicly funded initiatives face challenges such as labor agreements and bureaucratic processes, which can inflate costs and slow down construction. Many private firms are moving away from a reliance on government funds, which according to them, drives up development cost owing to the red tape. Instead, these firms are exploring alternative financing models. 

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For example, SDS Capital Group is raising an impact fund from private investors, to build a 49-unit low-income housing project in South Los Angeles. While privately financed projects may still rely on government support for operation, recent regulatory changes have facilitated approvals and increased profitability for such developments. Concerns linger regarding the long-term maintenance and sustainability of privately funded housing projects, particularly regarding the welfare of residents and the availability of federal funding for rental assistance programs. Nevertheless, advocates see potential in private-equity models to drive down construction costs and inspire government reform in affordable housing initiatives.

The United States is grappling with a housing crisis characterized by a shortage of millions of units and soaring housing costs for renters and buyers alike. To address this, cities are revising zoning rules to allow for more housing development, focusing on measures such as permitting multifamily homes in diverse neighborhoods and streamlining construction processes.

Minneapolis is leading the way with its progressive zoning reforms, adding 12% to its housing stock in just a five-year period. The city has taken measures such as ending single-family zoning and promoting midsize apartment buildings with 20 or more units. In Houston, minimum lot sizes were reduced from 5,000 square feet to 1,400, allowing for more units to be constructed. Milwaukee, New York City and Columbus, Ohio, are other examples of cities undertaking reform of their codes.

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The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) announced the allocation of over $14.5 million to public housing agencies (PHAs) nationwide to address veteran homelessness. An estimated distribution of more than 1,400 HUD-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) vouchers will be carried out nationwide. Some of the highest concentration of vouchers will go to Tucson, Arizona; Philadelphia; and Spokane, Washington. These vouchers combine rental assistance from HUD with support services, like case management and clinical services provided by VA. The vouchers have contributed to a 4% decrease in veteran homelessness since 2020 and has housed over 46,000 homeless veterans in 2023 alone.

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Homeownership among Black Americans has consistently trailed behind all others in the country, including by 28% compared to white homeowners. However, according to a new report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Black homeownership is expected rise in the future. 

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How? As more Millennials and Gen Z enter into the home buying market, there will be a rise in minority owners. This is because on average, this demographic is more racially and ethnically diverse. 

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Future predictions - 1.5 million Black households will turn the median homebuying age over the next 5 years. Female and millennial buyers have been driving growth in Black homeownership and will continue to do so. Besides Black households, 775,000 Asian households and 2.2 million Hispanic households will also turn the median homebuying age in the next 5 years.

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Challenges remain - Barriers such as rental affordability, student debt, and mortgage denial rates persist, hindering Black Americans' ability to purchase homes and achieve equitable homeownership rates. Addressing these challenges will be crucial to fostering greater inclusivity in the housing market.

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In 2024, the rental market is poised for transformation with two key factors: the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) tools and heightened competition among the multifamily rental market. A survey by AppFolio indicates that nearly half of property management professionals either use AI or plan to adopt it. Property managers face the challenge of maintaining high occupancy rates amidst a competitive market, with delinquencies identified as a top threat. To thrive in this changing landscape, property managers are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, streamline tasks, and improve employee satisfaction, while also focusing on understanding resident expectations and offering digital services to attract and retain modern renters. A strategic technology approach is crucial for success in 2024 and beyond.

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In 2021 and 2022, the commercial real estate sector experienced a surge in proptech adoption, leading to increased investment. However, a recent report from the Center for Real Estate Technology and Innovation highlights a slowdown in momentum during 2023, attributed to factors such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Venture capital investment in proptech witnessed a significant decline of 42% in 2023, amounting to $11.38 billion, compared to the previous year's total of $19.75 billion and the peak of $32 billion in 2021. Notably, the multifamily segment is being hailed as resilient, owing to continued robust activity in technologies targeting this space. What remains popular are technologies that help solve consumer problems, like reducing fraud.

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Rising rents and reduced working hours during the COVID-19 pandemic have left many U.S. renters struggling to make ends meet, with a record 50% paying over 30% of their income on rent and utilities, per Harvard University's report. The unaffordability trend saw the most significant jump among households earning $30,000 to $74,999 annually, with a third of full-time renters still being heavily cost-burdened. Even lower-income renters, already facing severe challenges, experienced a further increase to 83% being cost-burdened. The report attributes the homelessness surge to a severe housing shortage and rising rent costs, exacerbated by a lack of affordable housing options. Despite a cooling housing market, the cost of construction has hit record highs leading to the construction of predominantly high-end apartments. This is further contributing to a growing affordability gap, with median rents outpacing income growth since 2001. The situation has increased demand for federal housing subsidies, which remain underfunded and insufficient.

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In recent quarters, US bank loans backed by owner-occupied commercial real estate have outperformed those backed by nonowner-occupied properties. This shift began in 2020 when work-from-home policies impacted nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans. The delinquency ratio for nonowner-occupied properties surpassed that of owner-occupied ones in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023. The trend suggests that loans on owner-occupied properties carry less risk, reflecting property owners' likelihood to stay current on loans. However, the performance varies based on bank size, with larger banks experiencing worse delinquency ratios for nonowner-occupied loans. Notably, some major lenders like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup focus heavily on nonowner-occupied properties.

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